Abstracts – Browse Results
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Barrett, P S (1992) Measuring the ability gap for construction professionals. Construction Management and Economics, 10(04), 321-42.
Mak, S W and Raftery, J (1992) Risk attitude and systematic bias in estimating and forecasting. Construction Management and Economics, 10(04), 303-20.
Mohsini, R A and Davidson, C H (1992) Determinants of performance in the traditional building process. Construction Management and Economics, 10(04), 343-59.
Russell, A D and Ranasinghe, M (1992) Analytical approach for economic risk quantification of large engineering projects. Construction Management and Economics, 10(04), 277-301.
- Type: Journal Article
- Keywords: civil engineering; probability; risk
- ISBN/ISSN: 0144-6193
- URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/01446199200000027
- Abstract:
A consistent four moment based approach for quantifying time and economic risks is presented. The goal is to produce a computationally efficient tool that can be used to explore economic feasibility and trade-offs between costs and time performance versus risk as a function of various strategies for executing and sequencing major work packages. A three level hierarchy of parameters is used, starting with time, cost and revenue performance at the work package/revenue stream level to rate of return at the overall project level. Use of a four moment approach and Pearson distributions at all levels of the hierarchy permit the formulation of a consistent and readily automated approach to risk management. Treatment of correlations is included. A modified form of PNET is presented for quantifying time uncertainty. Use of limiting values (0,1) of the PNET transitional correlation provide bounds for decision parameters.